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US 30yr Swaps have yielded less than Treasuries since 2008 – does it matter?
Macro Letter – No 74 – 07-04-2017 US 30yr Swaps have yielded less than Treasuries since 2008 – does it matter? With 30yr Swap yields below T-bond yields arbitrage should be possible Higher capital...
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Is there any value in the government bond markets?
Macro Letter – Supplemental – No 4 – 12-5-2017 Is there any value in the government bond markets? Since 2008 US 10yr T-bond yields have fallen from more than 5% to less than 2% German 10yr Bunds...
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Bull market breather or beginning of the end?
Macro Letter – No 87 – 24-11-2017 Bull market breather or beginning of the end? Stock markets have generally taken a breather during November High yield and corporate bond yields have risen, but from...
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China – leading indicator? Stocks, credit policy, rebalancing and money supply
Macro Letter – No 88 – 08-12-2017 China – leading indicator? Stocks, credit policy, rebalancing and money supply Chinese bond yields have reached their highest since October 2014 Chinese stocks have...
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A safe place to hide – inflation and the bond markets
Macro Letter – No 91 – 16-02-2018 A safe place to hide – inflation and the bond markets US bond yields have risen from historic lows, they should rise further, they may not The Federal Reserve is...
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Not waving but drowning – Stocks, debt and inflation?
Macro Letter – No 103 – 26-10-2018 Not waving but drowning – Stocks, debt and inflation? The US stock market is close to being in a corrective phase -10% off its highs Global debt has passed $63trln –...
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A world of debt – where are the risks?
Macro Letter – No 108 – 18-01-2019 A world of debt – where are the risks? Private debt has been the main source of rising debt to GDP ratios since 2008 Advanced economies have led the trend Emerging...
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US Bonds – 2030 Vision – A decade in the doldrums
Macro Letter – No 125 – 17-01-2020 US Bonds – 2030 Vision – A decade in the doldrums US bond yields have been in secular decline since 1981 Predictions of a bond bear-market have been premature for...
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Epidemics, Economic Growth and Stock-market Performance – An Historical...
Macro Letter – No 127 – 13-03-2020 Epidemics, Economic Growth and Stock-market Performance – An Historical Perspective As the COVID-19 pandemic gathers momentum, history offers too few data points The...
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Debt or Taxes
With a new administration installed in the US and a $1.9trln relief package approved, attention has now turned to how this fiscal largesse will be paid for. I thought this article from September 2020...
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